Climate projections by scenario, 2030–2060 - Regions — Projected air temperature change compared to 1981-2010 average by country
This dataset provides sub-national indicators on 2030-2060 projections by scenario on air temperature, hot days, icing days, tropical nights, total precipitation and extreme precipitation days in large (TL2) and small (TL3) regions. Data definition and source Hot days refer to days during which the maximum...
What the numbers show
Climate projections by scenario, 2030–2060 - Regions — Projected air temperature change compared to 1981-2010 average is currently reported for 48 countries. The highest value is 3.1 Degrees celsius in Malta; the lowest is 0.6 Degrees celsius in Argentina.
The median across all reporting countries is 1.7 Degrees celsius, and the mean is 1.75 Degrees celsius.
The gap between the highest and lowest reporting country is a factor of about 5.
Over the past decade 36 countries rose and 5 fell. The largest increase was in Hungary (up 35.7%), and the largest decrease in Iceland (down 23.5%).
Climate projections by scenario, 2030–2060 - Regions — Projected air: full country ranking
| # | Country | Latest | Year | 10-year change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malta | 3.1 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 6.9% | rising |
| 2 | Canada | 2.5 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 13.6% | rising |
| 3 | Israel | 2.4 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 14.3% | rising |
| 3 | Italy | 2.4 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 14.3% | rising |
| 5 | Russia | 2.3 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 9.5% | rising |
| 5 | Japan | 2.3 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 21.1% | rising |
| 7 | Tunisia | 2.2 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 15.8% | rising |
| 7 | Greece | 2.2 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 22.2% | rising |
| 7 | Croatia | 2.2 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 15.8% | rising |
| 10 | Costa Rica | 2.1 Degrees celsius | 2060 | down 12.5% | rising |
| 10 | Slovenia | 2.1 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 16.7% | rising |
| 12 | Serbia | 2 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 25.0% | rising |
| 12 | Spain | 2 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 17.6% | rising |
| 12 | Portugal | 2 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 11.1% | rising |
| 12 | Bulgaria | 2 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 25.0% | rising |
| 16 | Romania | 1.9 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 26.7% | rising |
| 16 | Hungary | 1.9 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 35.7% | rising |
| 16 | Austria | 1.9 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 18.8% | rising |
| 19 | Switzerland | 1.8 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 12.5% | rising |
| 19 | United States | 1.8 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 5.9% | rising |
| 19 | France | 1.8 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 12.5% | rising |
| 19 | Estonia | 1.8 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 20.0% | rising |
| 23 | Czechia | 1.7 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 30.8% | rising |
| 23 | Latvia | 1.7 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 21.4% | rising |
| 23 | Finland | 1.7 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 6.2% | rising |
| 26 | Germany | 1.6 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 23.1% | rising |
| 26 | Indonesia | 1.6 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 6.7% | rising |
| 26 | Lithuania | 1.6 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 33.3% | rising |
| 26 | Luxembourg | 1.6 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 33.3% | rising |
| 26 | Mexico | 1.6 Degrees celsius | 2060 | unchanged | rising |
| 26 | Poland | 1.6 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 33.3% | rising |
| 32 | Belgium | 1.5 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 25.0% | rising |
| 32 | Sweden | 1.5 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 7.1% | rising |
| 32 | Denmark | 1.5 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 7.1% | rising |
| 32 | Peru | 1.5 Degrees celsius | 2060 | down 6.2% | rising |
| 32 | New Zealand | 1.5 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 7.1% | rising |
| 32 | Norway | 1.5 Degrees celsius | 2060 | unchanged | rising |
| 32 | Netherlands | 1.5 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 15.4% | rising |
| 32 | Brazil | 1.5 Degrees celsius | 2060 | unchanged | rising |
| 40 | India | 1.4 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 16.7% | rising |
| 40 | Colombia | 1.4 Degrees celsius | 2060 | down 6.7% | rising |
| 42 | South Africa | 1.3 Degrees celsius | 2060 | unchanged | rising |
| 42 | Australia | 1.3 Degrees celsius | 2060 | up 18.2% | rising |
| 42 | Iceland | 1.3 Degrees celsius | 2060 | down 23.5% | rising |
| 45 | United Kingdom | 1.2 Degrees celsius | 2060 | unchanged | rising |
| 46 | Ireland | 1.1 Degrees celsius | 2060 | unchanged | rising |
| 47 | Chile | 0.9 Degrees celsius | 2060 | down 10.0% | rising |
| 48 | Argentina | 0.6 Degrees celsius | 2060 | unchanged | rising |
Regions and income groups
Aggregates are excluded from the country ranking above so that a region can never outrank a country.
- Korea 2.5 Degrees celsius
- China (People's Republic of) 2 Degrees celsius
- Slovak Republic 1.7 Degrees celsius
About this data
This dataset provides sub-national indicators on 2030-2060 projections by scenario on air temperature, hot days, icing days, tropical nights, total precipitation and extreme precipitation days in large (TL2) and small (TL3) regions. Data definition and source Hot days refer to days during which the maximum temperature is higher than 35°C). Tropical nights refer to nights during which the minimum temperature is higher than 20°C. Icing days are defined as days during which the maximum temperature is lower than 0°C. Total precipitation in millimetres refers to the accumulated liquid and frozen water per year that falls to the Earth's surface. Extreme precipitation days are defined as days during which the total precipitation is higher than 20 mm. Projections are based on NASA NEX-GDDP CMIP6 data, which provides average air temperature projections at a 0.25° spatial resolution for different scenarios - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). SSPs are climate scenarios up to 2100 that model how socio‑economic factors may change over the next century. These scenarios are combined with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which outline different greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration levels and their radiative forcings. Radiative forcing quantifies how factors like GHGs, aerosols and solar changes affect Earth’s atmospheric energy balance. This dataset highlights four scenarios (see the methodology): SSP1-2.6: Sustainability. 2.6 watts per square metre (W/m2) radiative forcing, 1.8°C warming by 2100. SSP2-4.5: Middle-of-the-road. 4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing, 2.7°C warming by 2100. SSP3-7.0: Regional rivalry. 7.0 W/m2 radiative forcing, 3.6°C warming by 2100. SSP5-8.5: Fossil fuel development. 8.5 W/m2 radiative forcing, 4.4°C warming by 2100. Definition of regions Regions are subnational units below national boundaries. OECD countries have two regional levels: large regions (territorial level 2 or TL2) and small regions (territorial level 3 or TL3). For more information, see the OECD Territorial Grid (pdf) and the OECD Territorial Correspondence Table (xlsx). Cite this dataset OECD Regions, Cities and Local Areas database http://oe.cd/geostats. Further information OECD Local Data Portal OECD Regions and Cities at a Glance For questions and/or comments, please email RegionStat@oecd.org.