Climate projections by scenario, 2030–2060 - Regions — Projected air temperature by country

About this data

Indicator

Climate projections by scenario, 2030–2060 - Regions — Projected air temperature

Unit

Degrees celsius

Source

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Licence

OECD Terms and Conditions (attribution required)

Coverage

52 places, 1,612 data points, 2030–2060

Last refreshed

17 August 2026

<p>This dataset provides sub-national indicators on 2030-2060 projections by scenario on air temperature, hot days, icing days, tropical nights, total precipitation and extreme precipitation days in large (TL2) and small (TL3) regions.</p> <p><strong>Data definition and source</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Hot days</strong> refer to days during which the maximum temperature is higher than 35&deg;C).</li> <li><strong>Tropical nights</strong> refer to nights during which the minimum temperature is higher than 20&deg;C.</li> <li><strong>Icing days</strong> are defined as days during which the maximum temperature is lower than 0&deg;C.</li> <li><strong>Total precipitation&nbsp;</strong>in millimetres refers to the accumulated liquid and frozen water per year that falls to the Earth's surface.</li> <li><strong>Extreme precipitation</strong> days are defined as days during which the total precipitation is higher than 20 mm.</li> </ul> <p>Projections are based on NASA NEX-GDDP CMIP6 data, which provides average air temperature projections at a 0.25&deg; spatial resolution for different scenarios - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).</p> <p>SSPs are climate scenarios up to 2100 that model how socio‑economic factors may change over the next century. These scenarios are combined with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which outline different greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration levels and their radiative forcings. Radiative forcing quantifies how factors like GHGs, aerosols and solar changes affect Earth&rsquo;s atmospheric energy balance. This dataset highlights four scenarios (see the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-regions-and-cities-at-a-glance-2024_f42db3bf-en/full-report/methodologies_b841d611.html#section-d1e25873-2fdc5c3ec1">methodology</a>):</p> <ul> <li><strong>SSP1-2.6</strong>: Sustainability. 2.6 watts per square metre (W/m2) radiative forcing, 1.8&deg;C warming by 2100.</li> <li><strong>SSP2-4.5</strong>: Middle-of-the-road. 4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing, 2.7&deg;C warming by 2100.</li> <li><strong>SSP3-7.0</strong>: Regional rivalry. 7.0 W/m2 radiative forcing, 3.6&deg;C warming by 2100.</li> <li><strong>SSP5-8.5</strong>: Fossil fuel development. 8.5 W/m2 radiative forcing, 4.4&deg;C warming by 2100.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Definition of regions</strong></p> <p style="text-align: justify;">Regions are subnational units below national boundaries. OECD countries have two regional levels: large regions (territorial level 2 or TL2) and small regions (territorial level 3 or TL3). For more information, see the OECD Territorial Grid <a href="https://webfs-cfe.oecd.org/files/.Stat/region/OECD_territorial-grid_TL2024.pdf">(pdf)</a> and the OECD Territorial Correspondence Table <a href="https://webfs-cfe.oecd.org/files/.Stat/region/OECD%20Territorial%20correspondence%20-%20TL2024c.xlsx">(xlsx)</a>.</p> <p><strong>Cite this dataset</strong></p> <p>OECD Regions, Cities and Local Areas database&nbsp;<a href="http://oe.cd/geostats">http://oe.cd/geostats</a>.</p> <p><strong>Further information</strong></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://localdataportal.oecd.org/">OECD Local Data Portal</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-regions-and-cities-at-a-glance-2024_f42db3bf-en.html">OECD Regions and Cities at a Glance</a></li> </ul> <p>For questions and/or comments, please email <a href="mailto:RegionStat@oecd.org">RegionStat@oecd.org</a>.</p>